PATTERN PICKS · NFL
NFL Picks
Game picks first, then player props, grouped by matchup. PASS means a pick is not supported by verified current data.
Game picks · winner + total
| Game | Projected winner | Over / Under |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 · WAS @ SF | SF | Over 51.5 · requested |
| Point spread pick: Washington Commanders +7.5 (-112) · DraftKings. Model margin: San Francisco by 4.6. Line captured Oct 19 at 18:42 UTC. | ||
Player props · by game
| Game | Player prop | Anytime touchdown |
|---|---|---|
| Mon, Oct 19 · WAS @ SF | PASS · player/team mapping is not verified | PASS · model edge is below market |
Experimental research, not guarantees. Team picks are not calibrated betting probabilities. The requested Over 51.5 for WAS @ SF is a lean not validated by the totals model. Unverified player/team mappings and unavailable prop signals are PASS.
PATTERN PICKS / NFL
NFL Picks
Your weekly starting point: review the research slate, compare markets, inspect the underlying matchup data, and track outcomes after independent verification.
Start with the picks
Posted game sides, totals and player props are grouped below by market. A model direction is not a confirmed bet or priced recommendation.
Find this week’s matchups and game status.
02 · Matchup LabCompare team strength and performance trends.
03 · Model vs MarketExplore research signals alongside available odds.
04 · Verified ResultsSee the live verified prediction report and compare it with the research tracker.
NFL picks are grouped below by game sides, game totals and player props. Each posted selection includes its market, recorded price, rationale, risk note and capture time; no parlays are posted.
Current status: Monday Night Football · October 19, 2026. Full-history model pick: San Francisco 49ers. Requested total lean: Over 51.5; the totals model has not validated this direction. Current odds were captured at 2026-10-19 18:19 UTC and may move.
ACTIVE FORMULA · EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH
Formula-generated NFL game sides
This board reads the live head-to-head model feed. It blends the team model with a sample-size-shrunk series signal capped at 40%. Picks are model directions, not guaranteed winners or priced bets.
Verification: waiting for model feed. H2H results cover 1999 onward and are not all-time. This track has not yet established predictive accuracy.
Slate coverage note: the model feed currently has no saved formula snapshots for the Sunday, Oct. 18 games. Those are listed below from the earlier team-margin research feed; the formula picks shown here begin with the next available saved snapshots.
WEEK 6 · FIRST PUBLISHED SLATE
NFL straight moneyline picks
Published 2026-10-18 04:02 UTC, before the first listed kickoff. Prices are the best available between FanDuel and DraftKings at the recorded snapshot time and may have moved. A PASS means no pick. No parlays are included.
| Kickoff (ET) | Matchup | Pick | Market / recorded price | Reasoning from prior verified margin sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9:30 AM ET | Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Jaguars | Moneyline -148 · DraftKings | JAX mean margin +12.8 vs HOU -6.3; 4 prior games each. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Bears | Moneyline -116 · FanDuel | CHI +11.8 vs ATL +1.0; 4 prior games each. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Ravens | Moneyline -166 · DraftKings | BAL +5.0 vs CLE -3.5; 4 prior games each. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | PASS | No selection | IND signal +7.3 margin points, but moneyline is -325; model is uncalibrated. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | New York Jets at New England Patriots | PASS | No selection | Only a 1.3-point historical margin gap; too weak for a pick. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | Giants | Moneyline -106 · FanDuel | NYG +0.8 vs NO -7.3; 4 Giants and 3 Saints games. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Panthers | Moneyline -166 · DraftKings | CAR +3.0 vs PHI -4.5; 4 prior games each. |
| Sun 1:00 PM ET | Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | PASS | No selection | Model margins are effectively even: TB -2.4 vs PIT -2.5. |
| Sun 4:05 PM ET | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | PASS | No selection | Rams direction, but the moneyline is -800; no value claim from this model. |
| Sun 4:25 PM ET | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | PASS | No selection | Only a 2.8-point historical margin gap; too weak for a pick. |
| Sun 4:25 PM ET | Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | PASS | No selection | Chiefs direction, but the moneyline is -390 and model probabilities are uncalibrated. |
| Sun 8:20 PM ET | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | Cowboys | Moneyline +100 · FanDuel | DAL +0.4 vs GB -11.7; 3 Dallas and 5 Green Bay games. |
| Mon 8:15 PM ET | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | Moneyline: FanDuel -400 · DraftKings -395 (captured Oct 19, 2026, 18:19 UTC) | Full-history model pick: SF, 60.1% estimated home win probability. Experimental, not guaranteed. |
Model and risk notes: The 49ers selection uses the full-history model: prior regular-season and postseason results since 1999, preseason excluded, with a separate 40% historical home-field term and a sample-shrunk head-to-head signal. The Over 51.5 is a requested lean, not a validated output from the site’s totals model. Odds were captured at 2026-10-19 18:19 UTC and can move. Picks are experimental, not guaranteed.
View current odds comparison → · Open timestamped pick ledger →
NFL Point Spread Picks
Separate from the moneyline winner pick. Projected margin uses all-history venue-adjusted team ratings, a 40% historical home-field term, and a sample-shrunk head-to-head margin share capped at 40%. PASS means the current line is missing or the model edge is under 1.5 points.
| Game | Moneyline pick | Spread pick and captured line | Projected home margin | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ CHI | NE | PASS | -5.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ NO | NO | PASS | -0.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ ATL | SF | PASS | -1.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 4.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ CAR | TB | PASS | -1.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ HOU | HOU | PASS | 0.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ MIN | IND | PASS | -0.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ NYJ | MIA | PASS | -1.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ TEN | TEN | PASS | 3.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ ARI | DEN | PASS | -6.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| GB @ DET | GB | PASS | -2.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ LV | LA | PASS | -8.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ SEA | KC | PASS | -1.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DAL @ PHI | PHI | PASS | 2.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CAR @ GB | GB | PASS | 5.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BAL @ BUF | BAL | PASS | -3.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ CIN | CIN | PASS | 1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ARI @ DAL | DAL | PASS | 4.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIN @ DET | MIN | PASS | -1.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ JAX | IND | PASS | -0.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ NYJ | LV | PASS | 0.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ PIT | PIT | PASS | 7.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ATL @ TB | TB | PASS | 2.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ LA | LA | PASS | 1.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ DEN | KC | PASS | -1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NE @ MIA | NE | PASS | -4.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PHI @ WAS | PHI | PASS | -4.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CHI @ SEA | SEA | PASS | 4.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 4.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ ATL | CIN | PASS | -0.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ CAR | DEN | PASS | -3.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DAL @ IND | DAL | PASS | -1.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYJ @ KC | KC | PASS | 6.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DET @ MIA | DET | PASS | 0.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ NO | NO | PASS | 3.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ PHI | PHI | PASS | 5.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ WAS | LA | PASS | -2.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ LAC | LAC | PASS | 3.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ SF | SF | PASS | 7.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| GB @ NE | NE | PASS | 1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ARI @ SEA | SEA | PASS | 6.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ CHI | TB | PASS | -2.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ MIN | BUF | PASS | -1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| WAS @ NYG | NYG | PASS | 0.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NE @ DET | NE | PASS | -3.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ ATL | KC | PASS | -3.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ CLE | HOU | PASS | -2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIN @ GB | GB | PASS | 2.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ IND | IND | PASS | 1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CAR @ NO | NO | PASS | 3.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ NYJ | BUF | PASS | -6.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ TEN | TEN | PASS | -0.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ ARI | LA | PASS | -2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SEA @ LV | SEA | PASS | -2.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ DAL | DAL | PASS | -0.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ CIN | PIT | PASS | -3.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 4.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ HOU | IND | PASS | -2.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ BUF | BUF | PASS | 5.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BAL @ CAR | BAL | PASS | -7.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NO @ CHI | NO | PASS | -2.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ DAL | DAL | PASS | 4.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ DET | TB | PASS | -0.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ARI @ KC | KC | PASS | 9.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ NYG | JAX | PASS | -1.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYJ @ LAC | LAC | PASS | 6.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ DEN | DEN | PASS | 4.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ PHI | PHI | PASS | 2.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIN @ SF | MIN | PASS | -1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ WAS | CIN | PASS | -2.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| GB @ LA | GB | PASS | -5.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CHI @ DET | DET | PASS | 0.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PHI @ DAL | PHI | PASS | -1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ BUF | BUF | PASS | 2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ PIT | PIT | PASS | 1.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NO @ CIN | CIN | PASS | 0.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ CLE | CLE | PASS | 0.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BAL @ HOU | BAL | PASS | -5.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ IND | IND | PASS | 2.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYJ @ MIA | MIA | PASS | 2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ATL @ MIN | MIN | PASS | 2.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ JAX | TEN | PASS | 1.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| WAS @ ARI | WAS | PASS | -2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SEA @ SF | SEA | PASS | -1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NE @ LAC | NE | PASS | -1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CAR @ TB | TB | PASS | 2.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ LA | KC | PASS | -6.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DET @ ATL | DET | PASS | 0.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ CHI | CHI | PASS | 4.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ CLE | CIN | PASS | -3.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| GB @ NO | GB | PASS | -0.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ NYG | SF | PASS | -3.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ TB | TB | PASS | 1.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| WAS @ TEN | TEN | PASS | -0.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PHI @ ARI | PHI | PASS | -4.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ DEN | MIA | PASS | -2.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CAR @ MIN | MIN | PASS | 2.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ NE | NE | PASS | 2.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ PIT | PIT | PASS | 3.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DAL @ SEA | SEA | PASS | 1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIN @ NE | NE | PASS | 4.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 5.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NO @ CAR | NO | PASS | -3.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ATL @ CLE | ATL | PASS | -1.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ DET | TEN | PASS | 2.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CHI @ MIA | MIA | PASS | 1.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ NYJ | DEN | PASS | -5.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ PHI | PHI | PASS | -0.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ WAS | HOU | PASS | -0.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ LV | LAC | PASS | -4.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ CIN | KC | PASS | -2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ SEA | SEA | PASS | 5.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ SF | SF | PASS | 2.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ GB | BUF | PASS | 0.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ JAX | PIT | PASS | -0.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ LAC | LAC | PASS | 0.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SEA @ PHI | SEA | PASS | -2.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CHI @ BUF | BUF | PASS | 3.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ CAR | CIN | PASS | -1.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ GB | GB | PASS | 5.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ HOU | HOU | PASS | 2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ NYG | NYG | PASS | 2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BAL @ PIT | BAL | PASS | -1.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NO @ TB | NO | PASS | -0.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ TEN | IND | PASS | -3.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ATL @ WAS | ATL | PASS | -2.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYJ @ ARI | ARI | PASS | 3.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DAL @ LA | DAL | PASS | -3.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ LV | DEN | PASS | -3.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DET @ MIN | MIN | PASS | 2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NE @ KC | KC | PASS | 2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ PHI | PHI | PASS | 5.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| GB @ CHI | GB | PASS | -5.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ DEN | BUF | PASS | -4.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ SEA | SEA | PASS | 2.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ ATL | TB | PASS | -1.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 8.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CIN @ IND | IND | PASS | 2.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ MIA | MIA | PASS | 0.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| WAS @ MIN | MIN | PASS | 4.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ARI @ NO | NO | PASS | 2.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NE @ NYJ | NE | PASS | -8.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CAR @ PIT | PIT | PASS | 9.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ LV | TEN | PASS | -0.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ KC | KC | PASS | 4.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ DAL | DAL | PASS | 2.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ DET | DET | PASS | 5.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BAL @ CIN | BAL | PASS | -3.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NO @ ATL | NO | PASS | -1.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SEA @ CAR | SEA | PASS | -5.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| IND @ CLE | IND | PASS | -2.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYG @ DAL | DAL | PASS | 4.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| WAS @ JAX | WAS | PASS | -0.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| KC @ LAC | KC | PASS | -2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| BUF @ MIA | BUF | PASS | -5.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DEN @ NE | NE | PASS | 3.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIN @ NYJ | MIN | PASS | -4.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LA @ TB | LA | PASS | -0.7 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ TEN | PIT | PASS | -3.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ ARI | ARI | PASS | 0.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DET @ CHI | DET | PASS | -0.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PHI @ SF | PHI | PASS | -2.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| HOU @ GB | GB | PASS | 5.0 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SF @ ARI | SF | PASS | -4.1 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PIT @ BAL | BAL | PASS | 2.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| NYJ @ BUF | BUF | PASS | 6.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| ATL @ CAR | ATL | PASS | -1.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CLE @ CIN | CIN | PASS | 3.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LAC @ DEN | DEN | PASS | 0.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DET @ GB | GB | PASS | 3.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TEN @ HOU | HOU | PASS | 3.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| JAX @ IND | IND | PASS | 1.3 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| LV @ KC | KC | PASS | 7.8 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| SEA @ LA | SEA | PASS | -1.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| CHI @ MIN | MIN | PASS | 2.6 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| MIA @ NE | NE | PASS | 5.2 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| TB @ NO | NO | PASS | 1.4 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| PHI @ NYG | PHI | PASS | -4.9 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
| DAL @ WAS | DAL | PASS | -4.5 | Current matching spread lines are unavailable. |
Spread picks are research estimates, not guaranteed winners or a betting recommendation. Line and price are captured at snapshot time and may change. Graded ATS record: 1–0.
WEEK 6 · VERIFIED FINALS
Sunday, October 18 completed results
Prior verified mean-margin research directions: 3 correct · 9 incorrect across 12 completed games. Final scores were verified against the site’s independent final-score sources.
| Matchup | Forecast direction | Verified final | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU @ JAX | JAX | HOU 34–31 JAX | Incorrect |
| CHI @ ATL | CHI | CHI 31–23 ATL | Correct |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | CLE 13–10 BAL | Incorrect |
| TEN @ IND | IND | TEN 26–20 IND | Incorrect |
| NYJ @ NE | NYJ | NE 26–19 NYJ | Incorrect |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | NO 34–27 NYG | Incorrect |
| CAR @ PHI | CAR | CAR 25–14 PHI | Correct |
| PIT @ TB | TB | PIT 26–19 TB | Incorrect |
| ARI @ LA | LA | ARI 18–16 LA | Incorrect |
| LAC @ KC | KC | KC 22–6 LAC | Correct |
| BUF @ LV | LV | BUF 33–30 LV | Incorrect |
| DAL @ GB | DAL | GB 23–13 DAL | Incorrect |
This grades the prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 forecast direction, not wager returns. Some matchups were marked PASS in the posted moneyline table. The newer H2H model saved no pregame snapshots for this slate, so these results are not attributed to that model. The prior ledger records dates before game day; kickoff-time eligibility was not independently validated.
WEEK 6 · GAME TOTALS
Over / Under picks
TOTALS MODEL · FIRST WALK-FORWARD PROTOTYPE
This estimate blends each team’s prior points scored with its opponent’s points allowed, shrinking short histories toward the league average. It uses independently verified finals before each game date. The current scoring model has not yet improved on a simple league-average baseline, so the rows are projections for review; all totals remain PASS while the model is evaluated.
| Date | Game | Projected score | Projected total | Current market total | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | ||||||
Validation so far: 2026-only walk-forward test, 46 eligible games; total-points mean absolute error 11.93 versus 11.91 for the prior league-average baseline. This small sample shows no lift. Historical closing totals are not included in the available verified-results feed, so over/under pick accuracy cannot yet be backtested.
No game-total bets are posted for this slate. Every listed matchup is PASS because there is no validated, current-game totals model and no line-backed recommendation. The historical totals page is descriptive research only; it does not establish a verified forecast or betting edge.
| Matchup | Game total | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| New York Jets at New England Patriots | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | Over / Under | PASS · no validated line-backed pick |
| Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | Game total | Over 51.5 · FanDuel -112 / DraftKings -115 · requested lean; totals model has no validated signal |
WEEK 6 · FORMULA-GENERATED PLAYER PROP LEANS
One qualifying prop signal for each game
Model inputs: NFL player stats through Week 5 and current FanDuel/DraftKings prop lines checked October 18, 2026. Each row shows the model projection, market line, prior clear count and available prices. Prices may move.
Live model snapshot · Week 6 · updated 2026-10-18 05:23 UTC · current lines for 13/13 games. Experimental signals, not calibrated probabilities.
| Game | Research pick | Projection / line | Prior clears | Current prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ LA | Kyren Williams Receiving yards — Over 19.5 | 32.7 vs 19.5 (+13.2) | 4/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -110 |
| BAL @ CLE | Rashod Bateman Receiving yards — Over 19.5 | 42.9 vs 19.5 (+23.4) | 4/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 |
| BUF @ LV | Ray Davis Rushing yards — Under 10.5 | 2.0 vs 10.5 (-8.5) | 4/4 prior games | DraftKings -116 |
| CAR @ PHI | Tetairoa McMillan Receiving yards — Over 64.5 | 80.2 vs 64.5 (+15.7) | 3/4 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -110 |
| CHI @ ATL | Kalif Raymond Receptions — Over 2.5 | 4.2 vs 2.5 (+1.7) | 4/5 prior games | FanDuel -148 · DraftKings -144 |
| DAL @ GB | MarShawn Lloyd Rushing yards — Under 42.5 | 22.4 vs 42.5 (-20.1) | 5/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -111 |
| HOU @ JAX | Xavier Hutchinson Receptions — Over 1.5 | 3.0 vs 1.5 (+1.5) | 5/5 prior games | FanDuel -130 · DraftKings -115 |
| LAC @ KC | Omarion Hampton Rushing yards — Over 31.5 | 54.2 vs 31.5 (+22.7) | 5/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -114 |
| NO @ NYG | Kendre Miller Rushing yards — Under 34.5 | 20.8 vs 34.5 (-13.8) | 4/4 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -109 |
| NYJ @ NE | Braelon Allen Receiving yards — Under 14.5 | 5.5 vs 14.5 (-9.0) | 5/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -110 |
| PIT @ TB | Jaylen Warren Receiving yards — Over 28.5 | 37.2 vs 28.5 (+8.7) | 4/5 prior games | FanDuel -113 · DraftKings -114 |
| TEN @ IND | Cam Ward Passing yards — Under 206.5 | 185.2 vs 206.5 (-21.3) | 4/5 prior games | DraftKings -112 |
| WAS @ SF | Antonio Williams Receiving yards — Over 20.5 | 31.2 vs 20.5 (+10.7) | 4/5 prior games | FanDuel -114 · DraftKings -116 |
Formula: projection = 75% of the player’s season average + 25% of the average for that position and stat; rushing yards use the player average. It requires at least four prior games, a 70% prior clear rate and a minimum projection gap (8% of yard line, at least 5 yards; 0.75 receptions). One top qualifying signal is shown per game.
Validation: The initial 2026 walk-forward check covers only Weeks 4–5. Across 50 quarterback player-games, passing-yards MAE was 68.56 vs 70.84 for the player-average baseline. Across 442 RB/WR/TE player-games, receiving-yards MAE was 19.78 vs 20.08; receptions MAE was 1.42 vs 1.44. This is a small two-week test, not proof of an edge. Historical prop lines are unavailable for a betting backtest; the model has no injury adjustment or calibrated win probabilities. Prior clears are descriptive sample results, not future probabilities or guarantees.
Research only. These experimental leans are not confirmed wagers. Check the latest line, roster status and game availability before using them.
View Week 6 early model research →
Weekly matchup research
Use the automated slate below to open each game’s supporting data. Research directions are not confirmed wagers or calibrated win probabilities.
A model direction is an exploratory signal. Do not treat it as high confidence without independent validation.
Review injuries, missing inputs, market movement, sample size and disagreement between indicators.
No priced selection should be published when verified lines or sufficient supporting evidence are missing.
Live NFL matchup cards
Recorded pregame research from the Pattern Picks ledger. Sample sizes and historical margins are descriptive statistics, not calibrated probabilities.
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Cards are automatically populated from the existing research feed. Research directions are not verified wagers. Review market prices and injury information separately.
Upcoming games — automated model research
Automatically updated from the pregame ledger. These are research directions, not priced bets.
| Date | Matchup | Research direction | Model |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | NE at CHI | CHI | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | PIT at NO | PIT | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | SF at ATL | SF | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | CIN at BAL | BAL | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | TB at CAR | CAR | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | NYG at HOU | NYG | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | IND at MIN | MIN | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | MIA at NYJ | NYJ | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | CLE at TEN | CLE | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | DEN at ARI | DEN | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | GB at DET | DET | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | LA at LV | LV | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-25 | KC at SEA | KC | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-26 | DAL at PHI | DAL | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
| 2026-10-29 | CAR at GB | CAR | prior_verified_mean_margin_v1 |
Automated pregame model research only. Not verified sportsbook odds, betting selections, player props, or guaranteed outcomes. Results and model accuracy must be independently graded.
NFL research tools
Review team strength, recent trends and game totals before any selections are published.
Power Rankings · Team Trends · Game Totals · Data Integrity
How picks will be published
Game sides, totals and player props are listed together on the NFL Picks Board. A PASS is shown when evidence or a current line is missing. Picks are research opinions, not guaranteed results; no parlays are posted.
Sports betting involves risk. Historical results do not predict future winnings. Availability and legality vary by jurisdiction.
Compare FanDuel vs DraftKings NFL Odds →
NFL Model vs Market Intelligence →
PATTERN PICKS · EXPERIMENTAL NFL MODEL
Head-to-Head Model Picks & Results
Team form uses all prior regular-season and postseason results since 1999, with older seasons weighted less and past home/away advantage removed from team ratings. A separate 40% share of historical league home-field advantage is added, then direct head-to-head history is blended in up to 40%, shrinking with small samples. Preseason is excluded. Open picks refresh with new results and current odds until kickoff, then freeze for grading.
Awaiting final: 0 · Not yet played: 179 · No selection: 0 · Invalid snapshots: 0
Limited sample: Only 1 predictions have been graded. This does not establish future accuracy or betting profitability.
| Date | Game | Pick | Series (home team) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-01-10 | SF @ ARI | SF | 22–29–0 (51) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | PIT @ BAL | BAL | 24–30–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | NYJ @ BUF | BUF | 29–25–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | ATL @ CAR | ATL | 22–33–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | CLE @ CIN | CIN | 32–22–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | LAC @ DEN | DEN | 32–23–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | DET @ GB | GB | 36–18–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | TEN @ HOU | HOU | 25–24–0 (49) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | JAX @ IND | IND | 27–22–0 (49) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | LV @ KC | KC | 36–19–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | SEA @ LA | SEA | 22–27–0 (49) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | CHI @ MIN | MIN | 29–26–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | MIA @ NE | NE | 29–25–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | TB @ NO | NO | 28–22–0 (50) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | PHI @ NYG | PHI | 19–35–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-10 | DAL @ WAS | DAL | 16–39–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-04 | HOU @ GB | GB | 5–1–0 (6) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | NO @ ATL | NO | 23–32–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | SEA @ CAR | SEA | 4–10–0 (14) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | IND @ CLE | IND | 3–8–0 (11) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | NYG @ DAL | DAL | 32–23–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | WAS @ JAX | WAS | 1–6–0 (7) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | KC @ LAC | KC | 23–32–0 (55) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | BUF @ MIA | BUF | 20–34–0 (54) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | DEN @ NE | NE | 11–7–0 (18) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | MIN @ NYJ | MIN | 3–4–0 (7) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | LA @ TB | LA | 7–9–0 (16) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | PIT @ TEN | PIT | 9–11–0 (20) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | LV @ ARI | ARI | 4–3–0 (7) | Not yet played |
| 2027-01-03 | DET @ CHI | DET | 28–26–0 (54) | Not yet played |
Research only. Uses saved pregame snapshots and independently verified final scores. Calendar-date eligibility does not independently validate kickoff time. Not a betting recommendation.
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