← NFL Intelligence Hub · Results Audit
Historical Rating Test
A strictly chronological evaluation of a basic scoring-differential ranking. Each matchup is evaluated using only earlier games; no later results enter the rating.
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| Game date | Matchup | Prior rating (away / home) | Higher-rated side | Final candidate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Test protocol
Before each game date, team rating = prior points differential per game × games / (games + 6). Games on the same date are scored together against the same prior snapshot, then incorporated afterward. A game is evaluated only when both teams meet the minimum prior-games requirement and their ratings differ. Tied final scores are excluded from directional accuracy. The home-team baseline uses exactly the same evaluated game sample. The displayed accuracy is not a betting return, calibrated probability or market-adjusted edge. It is an in-sample descriptive walk-forward test on imported score candidates; no separate official-results reconciliation or untouched holdout season has been completed.
Imported scores have not been independently confirmed as final. This prototype is an internal research aid and must not be presented as a validated betting strategy. It ignores spreads, prices, injury context and home-field effects. With a single partial season, the sample may be small and misleading.